A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
